A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
